PTA: Start Up Load To Increase Supply Pressure To Ease

At the beginning of December, the OPEC conference, which had attracted much attention from the market, failed to produce good news, and its decision to abandon the crude oil production cap was a heavy blow to the international crude oil market.

Subsequently, the data released by EIA showed that although the US crude oil inventory declined after 10 consecutive weeks of growth, the stock of refined oil storage increased significantly, and the stock of distillate stocks increased the largest since January.

As a result, the international crude oil price has dropped for 6 days. The price of Brent crude oil has fallen below 40 US dollars / barrel, and the WTI crude oil price is approaching 35 US dollars / barrel.

At the same time, the PX contract negotiations failed in December, and the market price difference between the offer price and the delivery price was obvious. Moreover, there was no speculation in the raw material PX market, which basically followed the trend of crude oil price.

Last Wednesday, an accident occurred in the Ningbo CICC petrochemical plant. Its PX device temporarily stopped and the PX spot price rose slightly.

However, the performance of the upstream and downstream markets is relatively weak, and the supply of PX spot market is relatively stable, so it is difficult to effectively boost the PTA cost price.

At present, most of

Maintenance device has resumed normal operation, and domestic PTA integration.

It has risen to 67%, a relatively high level in the near future.

In view of this, the supply of PTA market has changed from the previous tense pattern, and the possibility of centralized maintenance of PTA devices is not very high in the near future. It is estimated that the PTA price will continue to weaken.

The overall performance of the downstream industry is not prosperous this year. After the "golden nine silver ten", the terminal weaving industry's performance of orders is insufficient, and the load of the industry has declined significantly.

It is understood that from 8 to 19 December, most textile enterprises in Jiaxing and Shaoxing were restricted in production and production, which made the weak terminal industry worse.

On the one hand, starting from late November, the comprehensive operation load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped from 72% to 65% at present, which is obviously lower than that in the same period in 2013 and 2014. On the other hand, the polyester industry is also not optimistic, and the start-up load has dropped to 76%, which is also a little different from that in the previous two years.

In addition, affected by the sluggish terminal demand, although the factory's willingness to ship goods is strong, the price of the main polyester products is at a historic low level, but the production and marketing performance is still poor.

On the contrary, it has increased.

In short, the market's overall bias, the possibility of stock market appear weaker.

Since the second half of this year, the price of PTA has been lower than the overall performance of other petrochemical products. The main reason is that domestic PTA factories set off intensive maintenance overhaul, which led to tight supply in the spot market and low inventory.

Affected by this, the market supply is tight, suppliers have strong price intention, PTA spot price performance is stronger, PTA futures contract discount rate has exceeded 200 yuan / ton in recent months.

What's more, the profitability of PTA factory is generally improved, and the willingness to stop inspection is weakened.